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When Everton moved into their new ground after four years of relegation scraps, their more pessimistic fans must have feared the worst. Investing £750m in a 52,769-seat stadium when you are on a run of finishing 16th, 17th, 15th and 13th in the league is a bold move. The ground has proven a success and the team’s recent results have matched it. Any talk of qualifying for Europe in the past few years would have sounded delusional but, after a run of four wins in five, Everton are up to seventh in the table, just two points behind fourth-place Crystal Palace. Relegation worries have flipped to European dreams.
Their 3-0 win against Nottingham Forest on Saturday showed how far they have come. Sean Dyche, back at the club for the first time since he was sacked as their manager in January, watched an Everton side he never got to coach. Dyche spent two years on Merseyside dragging the team away from the relegation zone through sheer grit. The team that beat his Nottingham Forest side at the weekend were composed, efficient and comfortable in victory.
“I want to be positive and try to get close to Europe,” said David Moyes after getting the better of his predecessor. “We’re not yet a side that will continually win all the games, but we’re making good progress.”
They certainly are. It was their fourth clean sheet in five games and their biggest win of the season. There is definitely room for improvement, though. Everton have scored just 18 goals in 15 league games this season; only Wolves, Burnley, West Ham and Forest – the bottom four teams in the table – have scored fewer. If they want a European place, they need to find the net more often.
A lack of firepower is not new; Everton have been in the bottom six for goals scored in each of the last four seasons. The problem is glaringly obvious: their strikers are not prolific. Beto, signed two years ago for £26m, and Thierno Barry, who arrived from Villarreal in the summer for £29m, have scored two league goals between them this season. Both are among the league’s most wasteful forwards when it comes to expected goal difference: Beto is second worst with -3.14 xG difference, Barry fourth with -2.8.
The problem stretches back far beyond this season. Everton have not had an outstanding goalscorer for a decade. Romelu Lukaku was their top scorer for four seasons in a row in the mid-2010s. No one has taken on the mantle since. For the last three seasons, their top scorer has failed to hit double figures for goals. Since Lukaku was sold in the summer of 2017, Everton have scored 366 league goals – the fewest of any club in the league during that period.
The fact that Everton have climbed up the table while struggling to find the net speaks volumes about the job Moyes has done organising and motivating the team. This is not Roberto Martínez’s swashbuckling side that finished fifth in the 2013-14 season but they have more ideas, personality and belief than the teams of recent years. For this iteration of Everton, “getting over the line” is snatching a win rather than seeing out a goalless draw.
Look no further than their 1-0 win against Manchester United last month, their first victory at Old Trafford since 2013. Reduced to 10 men in the 13th minute, they could easily have folded. But they put in an extraordinarily efficient display. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall gave them the lead with a moment of individual brilliance – one of their two shots in the match – and Jordan Pickford produced a series of heroic saves to secure a remarkable victory. Manchester United had 25 shots without scoring a goal.
There should be more goals in this Everton team. They have a number of creative players who are given freedom by Moyes to take risks and show off their flair. They rank 12th for xG (18.5), 13th for big chances created (27), seventh for xG per shot (0.12), and eighth for touches in the opposition’s box (372). These statistics do not light up the league but they show that Everton attack with purpose. Jack Grealish weaves through defences with silky dribbling and clever movement, pulling defenders out of shape and opening space for teammates. He has created the third most chances in the league this season (29) – a spark the team has lacked in recent years.
Iliman Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall, the club’s joint-top scorers this season, feed off the creativity and belief Grealish injects into the side. Ndiaye brings unpredictability and flair, using his trickery to unsettle defenders and create openings. Dewsbury-Hall combines vision and intelligence, consistently seeking progressive vertical passes to drive Everton forward. Ndiaye and Grealish are both in the top five players in the league this season for attempted take-ons; Dewbury-Hall is in the top 20 for key passes.
The key to their success, though, is their defensive record. Moyes has not lost his pragmatic instincts; his team has the sixth lowest possession in the league. Everton still sit deep, absorb pressure and hit opponents on the break. And they still rely heavily on Pickford. Everton have conceded the fifth highest xG (23.31) and faced the sixth most shots (194) this season, yet only three teams – Arsenal, Chelsea and Crystal Palace – have more clean sheets. They have conceded 23.31 in xG but just 18 goals on the pitch – a huge difference of 6.31. Having a goalkeeper who saves 74% of the shots he faces (the third best performance in the league) means they are a threat in any match.
Things are looking up for Everton this season but they need their forwards to sharpen up. If they can start converting their chances, they really could soar.
This is an article by WhoScored
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