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The NHS is bracing for its worst ever winter crisis in the next fortnight because of a worsening “flu-nami” that has left hospitals, GP surgeries and ambulances services under intense strain.
Hospitals are already treating record numbers of people seriously ill because of flu for the time of year. But things will get worse in the days ahead, NHS leaders said, as medical bosses urged people to get vaccinated against the virus so they can enjoy Christmas gatherings more safely.
Keir Starmer and the health secretary, Wes Streeting, have launched a coordinated assault on the British Medical Association for its “irresponsible” decision to call thousands of resident doctors in England out on strike next week.
They urged resident – formerly junior – doctors to endorse the government’s latest offer to settle the long-running pay and jobs dispute and avoid the NHS having to grapple with a five-day strike due to start next Wednesday that has caused huge alarm in the service.
Sir Jim Mackey, the chief executive of NHS England, has already described the strike as “cruel”, “calculated” and designed to “cause mayhem” given its timing. It may yet be called off, but only if enough resident doctors see an improved offer from Streeting, made on Wednesday, as enough of a reason to do so.
NHS England data released on Thursday showed that an average of 2,660 people a day were being treated in hospital last week as a direct result of flu – 55% up on the 1,717 the week before and enough to fill three NHS trusts. It is the highest number ever seen in the first week of December and included 106 people in intensive care, mostly with difficulty breathing.
Prof Meghana Pandit, NHS England’s joint medical director, said: “The number of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year.
“Even worse, it continues to rise and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.”
The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – which mainly affects babies and elderly people – and Covid are also causing problems. Those, combined with a mutated and highly virulent strain of fluthat is circulating, are threatening to “engulf hospitals”, Pandit added.
The number of people needing care has put a growing number of hospital trusts under such pressure that they have had to declare a critical incident – an admission that they cannot cope with demand and need help.
The UK Health Security Agency appealed for people who have not had a flu jab to get one as soon as possible.
Dr Conall Watson, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said: “There is still plenty of flu vaccine available to protect those who need it. What’s running out is time to be protected ahead of Christmas.”
The agency sought to reassure the public that the flu vaccine that is available UK-wide does reduce the risk of flu leaving people seriously unwell.
It explained that the virus is causing escalating problems because of an unusually early start to the season and “a drifted flu H3N2 strain … circulating … meaning less natural immunity in the community”.
But, it added, its data “shows the vaccine being used this winter is effective at preventing severe disease”.
“H3N2 strains typically affect older adults more severely than H1N1 strains, leading to more hospitalisations and deaths, creating pressure on our NHS this winter.”
The latest UKHSA figures showed worryingly low take-up of the flu vaccine among at-risk groups. Just 37.4% of under-65s who have one or more long-term health conditions had been vaccinated by 7 December.
Even fewer pregnant women – only 35.6% – had done so, as had 41.5% of children aged two or under and 42.3% of three-year-olds.
However, take-up among the over-65s is much higher, at 71.7%
Doctors urged the public to do what they can to minimise the risk of getting or spreading flu. Ed Hutchinson, a professor of molecular and cellular virology at Glasgow University, said: “Things like masking, social distancing and working from home can have a large impact on the spread of influenza viruses.”
Shereen Hussein, a professor of health policy at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, urged people to check on the welfare of older relatives and neighbours and take them to be vaccinated.
“This Christmas, safe connection should be the priority [when visiting people]. Short but frequent visits, good ventilation, wearing a mask if you have mild symptoms or have been recently unwell, and using phone or video calls if an in-person visit is not safe,” Hussein added.
Watson, from the UKHSA, also reiterated its advice that “if you have symptoms and need to go out, you should consider wearing a face covering”.
Some pharmacies have recently run short of flu vaccine. However, pharmacy groups stressed that they comprised only a few “isolated” cases and that there is plenty of the vaccine available.
Separate NHS England data also published on Thursday showed that the waiting list of those seeking planned hospital care rose again in October, albeit slightly, to 7.4m treatments, up from 7.39m in September.
Dr Vicky Price, the president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: “The latest performance data … paints a sadly familiar picture of a system under relentless strain.
“While the ongoing ‘flu-nami’ is being invoked as the primary cause of the crisis, this is a convenient scapegoat when the reality is that the situation is the direct result of a longstanding and predictable breakdown in NHS capacity and workforce shortages.”
Streeting said there was “a tidal wave of flu tearing through our hospitals”.
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